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With sufficient reserves of domestic affordable projects, rapid recovery of overseas demand, the carbon neutral target guides mid- to long-term demand, and the demand for photovoltaics is prosperous; the curtain of HJT industrialization has opened, and the localization of equipment is expected to accelerate HJT penetration.

Demand: The curtain of parity is opened, and the demand boom is worry-free

Due to the price increase in the industry chain, it is expected that most of the bidding projects with a total volume of 25.97GW in 2020 will be carried over to the grid in the first half of 2021; in terms of parity projects, two batches of projects announced by the National Energy Administration and recently converted from other models to parity projects The total amount exceeds 55GW. We predict that in 2021, about 45GW of affordable projects should enter the grid-connection cycle. It is estimated that domestic installed capacity demand is expected to reach 50GW in 2021, and it is expected to further increase to 60GW in 2022; the constraints of non-fossil energy consumption and other indicators will limit the During the “Fourth Five-Year Plan” period, photovoltaic demand will provide solid support. Taking into account the global situation, we predict that the global PV installed capacity will be about 120GW in 2020, basically the same year-on-year; the demand is expected to reach 160GW and 190GW respectively in 2021-2022, resuming rapid growth; considering the factor of capacity ratio, it is expected that the world will be global in 2020-2022 The demand for photovoltaic modules is expected to reach 134GW, 180GW, and 210GW.

Supply: The supply and demand of silicon materials are tight, and the module layout is optimized

Each link of the industrial chain is currently at different stages of the production cycle, presenting different supply and demand patterns under the expectation of high demand. Affected by the expansion of new capacity, silicon materials show a relatively tight supply and demand pattern as a whole, and prices are expected to remain relatively firm. New production capacity in the silicon wafer segment will continue to be launched, and the overall trend of gradual expansion of supply and demand will continue, and there is still room for price reduction; the dispute between 182mm and 210mm specifications is difficult to conclude in the short term. The price of mono-crystalline PERC battery is divergent, and large size has a premium space, which is expected to improve the profitability of battery companies. The brand and channel value of first-line companies in the component link are beginning to show up, which is expected to further expand the market share and industry concentration is expected to increase.

Technology: HJT’s industrialization curtain is opened, and equipment welcomes incremental space

HJT battery has multiple advantages such as high conversion efficiency, large room for efficiency improvement, strong power generation capacity, and short process flow. It is a platform-level technology in the cell segment. With the gradual landing of new capacity, the curtain of HJT industrialization has officially opened. On the basis of equipment localization, the initial investment of HJT equipment is expected to reduce the investment payback period of the HJT production line when it drops below 500 million yuan/GW, which is expected to further accelerate the industrialization of HJT batteries. We estimate that the demand for new equipment in 2020-2025 is expected to exceed 60 billion yuan, and the capacity in peak years is expected to exceed 20 billion yuan.